Stifel's reiterated Buy on Host Hotels looks straightforward until you decompose the Q1 beat and ask what the 8% dividend yield is actually pricing in. The answer should make REIT investors uncomfortable.
Multiple analysts just raised Host Hotels' price target on strong Q4 earnings and smart dispositions. The per-key math on what they're selling versus what they're keeping tells a more interesting story than the consensus rating.
Host Hotels sold 569 luxury keys for $1.93M each and called it capital recycling. The unlevered IRR looks clean at 11%... until you ask what replacement assets at that yield actually look like in 2026.
Citigroup just bumped Host Hotels' price target to $22, and three other analysts followed the same direction in the same month. The interesting number isn't $22... it's what $13B in market cap plus $5B in debt tells you about where Wall Street thinks luxury hotel yields are heading.
