Thirty percent of hotel-backed loans mature this year, and the rate relief owners underwrote in their 2023 pro formas isn't coming. The gap between what borrowers assumed and what lenders are quoting is where equity goes to die.
The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% but three FOMC members just dissented against the easing bias, and a new hawkish chair arrives in six weeks. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt originated in 2022-2024, the next move isn't a headline — it's a line item on your debt service schedule you need to model this week.
Hotel owners who underwrote refinancing, PIP financing, or development deals assuming H2 2026 rate relief are staring at a 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate that isn't moving... and the math on their desks just broke.
RLJ Lodging Trust pushed its debt maturities out to 2029-2033 while RevPAR is declining. The refinancing math works on paper, but "works" depends on which line you stop reading at.
WTI blew past $100 on March 9 before settling around $86, but the damage to forward assumptions is already done. The real number isn't the barrel price... it's the 375 basis point spread on hotel mortgage debt that just became a lot harder to refinance.
