Thirty percent of hotel-backed loans mature this year, and the rate relief owners underwrote in their 2023 pro formas isn't coming. The gap between what borrowers assumed and what lenders are quoting is where equity goes to die.
Nine of eighteen Fed policymakers now project at least one rate hike in 2026, and the new Chair is the most hawkish the Fed has had in a decade. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt, the refinancing math you ran in January is already wrong.
Seaview Investors defaulted on $45 million tied to a Residence Inn by LAX after 2024 net cash flow came in 38% below underwriting. The owner's decision to walk away tells you more about the LA market than any occupancy report will.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% last week, but four FOMC members dissented for the first time in over 30 years, and market odds now price a hike above 50% by early 2027. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt originated in 2021–2023, the assumptions baked into your pro forma are about to get tested.
