Nine of eighteen Fed policymakers now project at least one rate hike in 2026, and the new Chair is the most hawkish the Fed has had in a decade. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt, the refinancing math you ran in January is already wrong.
Seaview Investors defaulted on $45 million tied to a Residence Inn by LAX after 2024 net cash flow came in 38% below underwriting. The owner's decision to walk away tells you more about the LA market than any occupancy report will.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% last week, but four FOMC members dissented for the first time in over 30 years, and market odds now price a hike above 50% by early 2027. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt originated in 2021–2023, the assumptions baked into your pro forma are about to get tested.
