Today · Jul 25, 2026
Seven Casino Stocks on a Watchlist. Only Two Have Earnings That Justify the Price.

Seven Casino Stocks on a Watchlist. Only Two Have Earnings That Justify the Price.

MarketBeat flagged seven casino stocks as "promising" based on trading volume, not fundamentals. When you decompose the actual earnings behind the share prices, the gap between investor enthusiasm and operator reality is wide enough to walk through.

DraftKings is trading at 384x trailing earnings. Let that register. A company generating $0.20 per share in Q1 against a $11.3 billion market cap, down 43% over twelve months, made a "promising" list because people are trading it frequently. Trading volume is not a thesis. It is activity. Activity and value are different things.

The MarketBeat list mixes seven names across two fundamentally different businesses and treats them as a single category. DraftKings, Rush Street Interactive, PENN Entertainment, and Super Group are digital gambling platforms. MGM, Red Rock Resorts, and Monarch Casino are real estate operators with physical assets, capital expenditure cycles, and actual rooms generating actual RevPAR. Lumping them together because they all involve wagering is like comparing a REIT to a fintech startup because both "deal with money." The risk profiles, capital structures, and valuation frameworks share almost nothing. An investor reading this list without decomposing the underlying business models is buying a label, not an asset.

The two names worth a second look are the ones with earnings that resemble operating businesses. Red Rock Resorts posted $0.73 Q1 EPS on a 20.5x trailing P/E with a $3.9 billion market cap. Monarch reported $1.78 Q2 EPS on $142.6 million revenue (up 4.2% year-over-year), trading at $119 against a $124 consensus target. These are real casino-resort operators generating real cash flow from physical properties in identifiable markets. Red Rock's expansion into tribal gaming management and its Durango property give it a development pipeline tied to tangible demand in the Las Vegas regional market. Monarch's CEO selling 5,000 shares on the same day Zacks downgraded to "strong sell" goes in the model... insider sales paired with a downgrade is a data point, not a verdict, but it changes the risk picture.

The digital names tell a different story. Rush Street Interactive grew revenue 41% year-over-year to $370 million in Q1, which is genuinely impressive, but the 101x P/E assumes that growth rate sustains for years. PENN is projecting 55% earnings growth next year (from $1.39 to $2.15 per share), which prices in a successful integration of its sports betting operations with its legacy casino portfolio. If that integration stalls, the growth assumption evaporates. I audited a gaming company once that projected 40% digital revenue growth for three consecutive years. They hit it in year one. Year two came in at 18%. By year three the projections had been quietly "revised." The original deck was never mentioned again.

MGM is the most complex name on the list. Q1 revenue of $4.45 billion (beating estimates by $80 million) with EPS of $0.49 (missing by $0.07) tells you the top line is performing and the cost structure is eating the upside. Macau recovery and Las Vegas Strip stability are real tailwinds. But revenue that beats while earnings miss is a flow-through problem. For hotel investors specifically, MGM's owned real estate portfolio and its relationship with VICI Properties (which owns much of MGM's physical Strip presence under sale-leaseback structures) creates a layered risk profile that a simple "promising stock" label does nothing to illuminate. The person who owns the building and the person who operates the casino have very different exposures to a consumer spending pullback. A watchlist that doesn't distinguish between those positions isn't analysis. It's a screen.

Operator's Take

Here's what I want casino-adjacent hotel operators to take from this. If you're running a property in a gaming market... Vegas, Atlantic City, Gulf Coast, tribal markets... the institutional money is actively sorting winners from losers in your competitive set right now. Red Rock getting price target bumps from Barclays and Truist means capital is flowing toward Las Vegas locals-market development. If you're competing for that customer, the new supply from Durango and whatever Red Rock builds next is pricing pressure you can model today. Don't wait for it to show up in your comp set data six months from now. Pull your STR report, identify the overlap, and run a scenario where your fair share drops 2-3 points. That's your planning number. If MGM's earnings miss on flow-through while revenue beats, that same margin compression is probably showing up in your P&L too. Check your cost-to-achieve on every revenue dollar. If it's climbing faster than rate, you're on the treadmill. Get off it before your owner notices the EBITDA line moving the wrong direction.

— Mike Storm, Founder & Editor
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Source: Google News: Casino Resorts
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