I worked with a GM years ago who ran a 280-key airport property. Every summer he'd tape a handwritten checklist to the back office wall titled "Storm Season." Not weather. Flight disruptions. He had a protocol for everything... who to call at each airline's local ops center, which rooms to hold back for distressed passenger blocks, how to staff the desk for a midnight wave of 60 angry people who just got told their connection doesn't exist anymore. The guy treated summer like a hurricane plan. Most of his competitors treated it like any other Tuesday. Guess who consistently ran 8-12 points higher in occupancy June through August.

That checklist matters more this summer than any summer I can remember. And here's why. You've got three things converging at once, and any one of them would be a big deal on its own. Together, they're going to reshape your summer P&L whether you're ready or not. First, jet fuel has nearly doubled since late February... $2.50 a gallon to $4.62 by the end of March. That's not a blip. The Iran situation has the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, fuel depots under attack, and United's CEO on record saying we might not see $100-a-barrel fuel again before the end of 2027. When fuel is a quarter of an airline's operating cost and Delta just ate an extra $400 million in one month, the airlines don't absorb that. They cut. United already announced 5% of planned flights through Q3 are gone. The FAA just capped operations at 40 major airports. Chicago O'Hare is running under a hard ceiling of 2,800 daily ops. Second, TSA is falling apart. Over 500 officers have resigned since mid-February. The nationwide call-out rate hit 10.6% on March 30... normal is 2%. Some airports (Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta, JFK) are running 20-40% call-out rates. Training a replacement takes four to six months. This isn't getting better by June. The acting TSA administrator used the phrase "perfect storm" in front of Congress last week, and for once that wasn't hyperbole. Third, the regulatory side is a slow-burn wildcard. The DOT's automatic refund rule for canceled flights is live, which means passengers have more leverage to bail entirely rather than rebook. Meanwhile, the ancillary fee disclosure rule got killed by a federal appeals court in February, so airlines keep their fee revenue for now... but Congress has the "End Airline Extortion Act" sitting in committee, and if that gets legs, it squeezes another revenue line the carriers depend on. Less airline revenue means more capacity cuts. More capacity cuts means fewer travelers in the system. Period.

Now here's where it gets interesting, because this story cuts two completely different ways depending on what kind of hotel you're running. If you're an airport property, disruption is your friend... but only if you're operationally set up to capture it. Walk-in demand at 11 PM from 200 stranded passengers is a revenue event or a disaster, and the difference is entirely about preparation. Do you have a distressed-passenger rate agreement with the carriers at your hub? Do you have the front desk staffed to handle a surge? Can housekeeping turn rooms at 10 PM? Do your night team members have the authority to sell rooms at the right rate without calling a manager who's asleep? If the answer to any of those is no, you're going to watch that demand walk across the road to the property that said yes. I've seen it happen. It's brutal.

If you're a destination property... especially in Florida, the Caribbean, or any mountain resort market that depends on air access... this is a different and uglier conversation. When airlines cut capacity on leisure routes, your guests don't just arrive late. Some of them don't arrive at all. A family that booked a five-night stay and loses the first day to a cancellation doesn't just shorten the trip by one night. They start reconsidering whether the trip is worth the hassle. Your cancellation policy language matters more right now than it has in years. Your group sales contracts with air-dependent attendees need contingency clauses. And your revenue managers should be stress-testing what happens to your forecast if 5-8% of your booked room nights evaporate to flight disruptions, because that's the range that's realistic given the capacity cuts already announced.

The bigger picture here is something that doesn't show up in any single headline but matters more than all of them combined. We're looking at what could become a structural reduction in the number of people moving through the system. Not a one-week blizzard disruption. Not an air traffic control glitch that clears up in 48 hours. The fuel situation isn't temporary (the Iran conflict isn't ending next month). The TSA staffing crisis takes months to recover from, not weeks. And if Congress decides to squeeze airline ancillary revenue on top of all that, the carriers respond the only way they know how... they shrink. Fewer flights, fewer seats, fewer travelers, fewer hotel nights. AHLA estimated that flight cuts alone could cost hotels $9 to $22 million per day in lost revenue, and that was before the FAA started capping operations at 40 airports. This is what I'd call a Shockwave Response moment... you need to know your floor, know your breakeven, and have a plan before the shock fully arrives. Because by the time CNN is showing lines at O'Hare on the evening news, it's too late to build one.