IHG just posted 4.4% global RevPAR growth against a 3.3% consensus, and the stock market is celebrating. But when conversions make up more than half your signings and your loyalty program is the engine driving the whole thing, the question isn't whether the brand is growing... it's what that growth is costing the people who actually own the buildings.
IHG's stock just dipped below its 200-day moving average while the company is actively buying back nearly a billion dollars in shares. When a company with 6,000-plus hotels decides the best use of its cash is making itself smaller, every franchisee should be asking what that says about the growth story they were sold.
IHG just launched Noted Collection, its 21st brand, targeting the 2.3 million independent upscale rooms worldwide with the pitch that owners can join the system and stay unique. I've watched this movie enough times to know where the "unique identity" goes once the standards manual arrives.
IHG posted 16% adjusted EPS growth and a record year for openings, but Q4 Americas RevPAR fell 1.4% and Greater China was negative for the full year. The analyst ratings now range from Buy to Sell on the same set of numbers.
