People Inc. is offering $18 billion for MGM while Fertitta is taking Caesars private for $17.6 billion, and both deals are built on the same thesis: public markets have been punishing these companies for years while the buildings kept printing money. If you operate a hotel inside either portfolio, the math behind your management contract is about to get very different.
Diller's People Inc. bid values MGM at $18 billion while insiders are already heading for the exits. When the stock trades above your offer price and an analyst downgrades you to Hold because the deal math doesn't pencil, that's the market telling you something you should already know.
Pansy Ho sold her entire 1.2% stake in MGM Resorts for $140 million right as a takeover bid inflated the stock price. The timing tells you everything about how the people closest to the deal actually feel about where this company is headed.
MGM posted record Q1 revenue while EBITDA fell nearly 9% and EPS missed by 12.5%, which is a textbook case of a company growing its top line while the owner's actual return moves in the wrong direction.
MGM China grew revenue 9% and somehow got less profitable, because the parent company doubled the branding fee to 3.5% of net revenue starting January 1. If you've ever wondered what it looks like when a brand extracts value from an operator in real time, this is your case study.
